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I just read the following report on RFE/RL about the escalation of chances for war breaking out again between Azerbaijan and Armenia/Nagorno-Karabagh over control of the self-declared republic. Here’s a segment of the article:
 The likelihood of another Armenian-Azerbaijani war for Nagorno-Karabakh has increased as a result of the U.S.-backed rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey, according to America’s top intelligence official.
“Although there has been progress in the past year toward Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, this has affected the delicate relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and increases the risk of a renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh,” Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair warned late Tuesday in written testimony to a U.S. Senate committee.
Blair also warned of broader security and stability threats persisting in the South Caucasus. “The unresolved conflicts of the Caucasus provide the most likely flashpoints in the Eurasia region,” he said. “Moscow’s expanded military presence in and political-economic ties to Georgia’s separatist regions of South Ossetia and sporadic low-level violence increase the risk of miscalculation or overreaction leading to renewed fighting.”
The United States has strongly supported and at times mediated in the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement that began nearly two years ago and led to the signing last October of two “protocols” envisaging the normalization of relations between the two historical foes.
I don’t know if this is something to worry about. Sure, Ilham Aliyev likes to spew war rhetoric ever now and then, threatening to pummel Armenian forces and take back control over Nagorno-Karabakh, but no one ever took it seriously–at least not Moscow, Paris or Washington. But Dennis Blair begs to differ. He must know information that no one else does–perhaps not even Yerevan–even something that hasn’t been revealed in his written testimony.
Is this for real?
President Serge Sarkisian is tentatively scheduled to meet with his counterpart, Ilham Aliyev next week on the sidelines of a summit of former Soviet republics to take place in Chisinau, Moldova. The OSCE Minsk Group met in Yerevan yesterday to form a game plan for the talks it seems, and they’re about to visit Karabagh. It will be US co-chairman Robert Bradtke’s first visit to the region unless I’m mistaken.
According to RFE/RL, the following is on the agenda for the next round of discussions, according to official sources:
 Speaking at a news conference in Ankara on Wednesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Yerevan and Baku are as close to cutting a peace deal as never before. Davutoglu claimed that a team of OSCE experts is now visiting the Armenian-controlled Lachin district to delineate an internationally recognized land corridor that would link Karabakh to Armenia proper in the event of a peaceful settlement. He said they plan to complete the “technical work” in time for the Aliyev-Sarkisian meeting.
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Official Baku reiterated on Thursday that it is ready to guarantee unfettered communication between Armenia and Karabakh but wants the Lachin corridor to remain an internationally recognized part of Azerbaijan. “We can not accept unilateral use of Azerbaijan’s territory by Armenia,” the APA news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov as saying. “The Lachin corridor will remain Azerbaijani territory even if it is given to Armenia for use.”
Citing unnamed diplomatic sources, Turkey’s “Hurriyet Daily News” newspaper reported on Thursday that Aliyev and Sarkisian have already made progress in determining “the width and status of the Lachin corridor.” “The deadlock is over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, but hopes are running high for a final settlement,” it said.
The paper also said Ankara has deliberately made sure that its agreements with Yerevan on the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations are signed after the planned Armenian-Azerbaijani summit. It said the Turkish side feared that Sarkisian would otherwise sit down with Aliyev “in a more advantageous position.”
This is depressing news, no matter whether or not it is indeed true. I was always hoping that Karabagh would be annexed to Armenia along with the Lachin and Kelbajar districts in a final peace settlement, but this seems to be wishful, or rather naive, thinking. The peace proposals that have been laid on the table were always highly unfavorable for the Armenian side, and this new information, assuming it is indeed true, is very disturbing.
I don’t know what else to write about this process. I have written extensively about it on my other blog, Notes From Hairenik where I have expressed my thoughts and opinions. All I can say at this point is that I hope nothing is written in stone in Moldova.
Originally posted 2009-10-02 00:17:18. Republished by Blog Post Promoter
There is an excellent, concise article on Hetq Online briefing readers about the situation surrounding the threat to the Teghut Forest, located in the northern part of the Tavush region.
As you may know, the forest is scheduled to be felled in a business plan absurdly approved by Armenia’s Ministry of Nature Protection. Three organizations which will argue their case against the plan are going to court–they are the Transparency International Anti-corruption Center, the Vanadzor Office of the Helsinki Civic Assembly and EGODAR.
The article points out that 357 hectares of forest are to be cleared to make way for a copper mining project taken on by the Armenian Copper Programme (ACP). Many species of endangered wildlife that make Teghut their home have been cited in the “Red Book” published International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN), and they even appear in the Armenian Red Book listing endangered species. Rare species of plants and trees will also be affected by the felling.
Here’s an excerpt:
Teghut and the surrounding area are home to several animal species listed in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red Book. There are also 7 bird, 7 mammal and 2 reptile species listed in the Armenian Red Book that make Teghut their home.
It should be safe to say that there is some kind of link between Armenian government officials and the management of ACP, as the Ministry of Nature Protection would logically never agree to such a plan assuming the people there were actually doing their jobs for the benefit of their own country, especially when endangered wildlife species are at stake. I can’t understand how that ministry would actually approve such a business plan that would wreak havoc on Armenia’s ecosystem.
Although that at least 1,000 people are expected to be put to work by the ACP, which I doubt will be long term, I can’t justify the further disintegration Armenia’s fragile ecosystem for the sake of business and employment.
Armenia Tree Project five years ago estimated that the total forested area coverage of Armenia was only around 6 percent. At the beginning of the 20th century it was something like 20 percent. By the time Armenia became part of the Soviet Union that figure dropped to 11 percent.
Armenia cannot afford to turn into a desert. The northern parts of the Teghut and Lori regions are blanketed by rich forests which are essential to the survival of Armenia’s ecosystem. The country’s forests have been suffering from illegal cutting to stuff the pockets of money grubbing oligarchs and greedy men in government for years. Can you imagine what Armenia would be like without forests one day? We can’t let that happen.
Originally posted 2009-07-14 00:32:38. Republished by Blog Post Promoter
 Sunday was the opening day of the sixth annual Golden Apricot Film Festival. The festival showcases films by Armenian filmmakers and others from around the world representing such countries as Guatemala, France, Poland, the US, Germany, Bulgaria, Iran, Spain, Israel and many others.
I’ve already noticed that some films to be shown have some sort of “mafia” theme to them, such as “Inside Ring” starring renown French actor Jean Reno, about the Armenian mob in France. This actuality isn’t all that surprising since there are a some extremely popular Armenian-produced crime dramas on television at the moment. Many people tell me that they accurately reflect Armenian society. I can’t find any argument to oppose them.
Even films by Turkish filmmakers will be screened as they were last year. Seems the organizers of the Armenian film festival are trying to make the point that film and politics are completely separate entities and that it’s OK to watch such films in your own country even though they were produced by your historical enemy. There’s even something called the “Armenia-Turkey Cinema Platform.” Apparently in April and December 2008 meetings were held in Turkey and Armenia, respectfully where topics concerning ”How cinema deals with history” and ”Cinema as Means of Cross-Border Dialogue and Mutual Understanding” were discussed by the participants. How noble of them.
Anyway, like I just mentioned, many films by Armenian filmmakers will be shown. Among them are Karen Oganesyan of Gyumri, Nuran David Calis of Germany, Vardan Hakobyan of Armenia, Michael A. Goorjian of the US, Aram Shahbazyan of Armenia, and Nigol Bezjian of Beirut, who I personally have met a few times in Boston. In all, 27 Armenian directors will be featured. Unfortunately many of the Armenian films will be screened in the late morning or during the afternoon, which makes it virtually impossible for people with steady day jobs to see them, like myself.
Since I work until 7 pm most days it seems I will only be able to see films presented by foreign filmmakers in the evenings. I plan on catching “Looking For Palladin” tonight at 8:30 pm by Andrzej Krakowski, which stars Ben Gazzara, a veteran of the John Cassavetes troupe from the 1970s. It’s about a Hollywood talent scout who travels to Guatemala in search of an Oscar-winning actor in his advanced years to lure him out of retirement.
Hopefully, I’ll be able to get in since they tend to have “by inventation only” screenings of films for some strange reason. As a tip off–if you show up to watch a film only to find that you have to be a VIP to get into the theater, wait until the ushers have determined that no one else with an invitation will show up. They just might let you in, for free.
The Golden Apricot Film Festival is the only chance a movie buff living in Armenia has throughout the year to watch fascinating films of world cinema as they are meant to be seen–on the silver screen. Sometimes they are subtitled in English if they were produced in a non-English speaking country, which obviously is a huge plus. Unless you are a Russian speaker, however, you can rule out watching films produced in Russia with subtitles, unfortunately.
Leave your own reviews of the films that you have seen at the festival in the comments section.
Originally posted 2009-07-13 00:25:36. Republished by Blog Post Promoter
 According to RFE/RL the Turkish newspaper Milliyet has reported that the protocols are scheduled to be signed on October 13. Incidentally that is the date when the Treaty of Kars, which defined the present day border between the two countries, was endorsed. Apparently history is symbolically repeating itself to the date. The agreements will most likely be signed in a neutral country and not in Turkey where Armenian President Serge Sarkisian is due for a visit to watch football next month on October 14th. Maybe in a gesture of “goodwill and in pursuit of peace, mutual understanding and harmony” as the protocols stipulate, the Turks will let the Armenian team win, but don’t count on it.
Interesting times we are living in. Let’s see what the Armenian nation will decide by the day before the protocols are supposed to be signed (this could be a ploy, they could always be signed in secret sooner).
Time’s running out.
Originally posted 2009-09-18 01:00:00. Republished by Blog Post Promoter
It looks like historically wrinkled and singed Turkish-Armenian relations will be ironed out after all. Last night around 10:45 while I was watching CNN news broke that Turkey and Armenia will soon be coming to an agreement to open the border and forge diplomatic relations.
Here’s what the New York Times had to say:
Turkey and Armenia, whose century of hostilities constitutes one of the world’s most enduring and acrimonious international rivalries, have agreed to establish diplomatic relations, the two countries announced Monday.
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For Turkey, better relations with Armenia could improve its chances for admission to the European Union, where the genocide issue remains one of the main obstacles, and remove a bone of contention over the same issue with the United States, which has a large Armenian community.
The Swiss-mediated talks began last year, keeping a low profile to avoid exciting nationalist antagonism in both countries. Armenia’s insistence that border and trade relations be normalized before any discussion of genocide began helped push the most contentious issue to the back burner.
As I wrote in a previous post, I don’t see anything good coming out of establishing diplomatic relations and an open border for the Armenian side.
Black market trade between Armenia and Turkey has always been one sided. Armenian consumers are quick to buy Turkish-made domestic products, construction materials and clothing, while Turkish resort owners take advantage of Armenian tourists vacationing in Antalya. The price of Turkish goods on the Armenian marketplace cannot possible go down any further, as they are fairly cheap already. Armenian customs fees on Turkish imports will either go up or stay the same, but then again, who can tell? They may even be waived for the sake of an open border, since the Armenian government seems to be doing whatever it takes to appease Turkey.
In terms of commerce, Armenians have little to offer Turks besides real estate and enterprises, large or small. Armenians will be ever willing to sell out what they have at the right price, with even more incentive to leave the country subsequently. Armenian brandy sales could perhaps rise–Turkish consumers may take a liking to it after sampling snifters of the stuff in restaurants and leave the raki on the shelf, but I doubt very much that will happen. Looks like Armenians will only be making money from selling their houses and land (which they’ve been doing for years anyway).
In the framework that was initially signed, the border will open without any repentance on the Turkish side for mistakes committed in the past, namely of course, genocide. No discussion about land reparations or the redrawing of borders will ever be raised again. Ankara will be able to exert political influence over Yerevan and even potentially force an end the Nagorno-Karabagh issue once and for all as quickly and quietly as possible. These points will undoubtedly be cemented in the agreements that will be stamped for approval in the coming weeks.
It is naïve thinking that Turkish aggression against Armenians will not resurface. Anyone who has read a single book about Armenian history will realize that. With this deal the Armenian side is very weak, and Armenians will essentially gain nothing but short-term fortune, if it can be called that.
Here’s an example: If a villager in Vardenis, located on the far side of Lake Sevan, is poor and not able to make a living, it is because there is no economic investment there as roads are not frequently travelled and more importantly, the Armenian government has really done nothing to entice foreign investors to invest in such places, especially Armenians from the diaspora. Nothing has changed in most rural parts of the country since independence. An open border will not change one iota of their lives, unless of course Turks move into the villages, buy everyone out and develop things as they see fit. That’s exactly what’s going to happen because the Turks historically have always wanted the Armenian question to be resolved. The threat of Pan-Turanism has always waned, but this time there’s no stopping it.
Armenians learned how to be resilient and self-reliant in the last 18 years, and they have done quite well for themselves. Now they’re becoming fat and lazy, looking for easier, potentially cheaper land transportation. That’s still to be worked out since we don’t yet know whether Turkey will impose transit fees, never mind customs fees.
If this is really what Armenians desire, if they are willing to put the Genocide recognition issue to rest so that they can sell things–land or whatever else–to Turks, if they are willing to put their culture, religion, heritage, traditions and principles on the line, then so be it–let the border open.
Armenians better start learning how to speak Turkish fairly quickly. Might as well start weaving prayer rugs and offer them to Turkish tourists in the Vernisage as well. After all, trade has to start someplace.
Originally posted 2009-09-01 00:14:08. Republished by Blog Post Promoter
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