Just yesterday former Armenian foreign minister Alexander Arzumanian, who was jailed for months and was only last week finally released along with 25 fellow oppositionists, gave a press conference. During his statement to the press he accessed what has been transpiring since the presidential elections held in February 2008 and, more specifically, the infamous events of March 1 of last year, which he described as a “massacre.”
Regarding March 1, he stated that the authorities still have to answer for their part in the killings and general lawlessness that occurred that day.
Hetq Online quotes Arzumanian as saying the following:
No one has yet been held accountable for the deaths of ten citizens. The regime has lately been attempting to cover up the affair and place the blame on others. The March 1st file will only be closed when those responsible, those who gave the orders and the murders are held accountable. The actions of the regime over the past 18 months have been aimed to circumventing any punishment from the international community.
The investigation into March 1 was recently closed by the Armenian authorities and basically no report about what really happened was ever presented to the public.
As a result of the March 1 crackdown about 100 people were arrested on trumped-up, baseless charges without proof of wrongdoing. The opposition claimed that they were political prisoners while the Armenian authorities vehemently denied that they were not. Since then, mainly under the pressure of Western institutions, particularly the Council of Europe, most of them have been released, although about 24 remain in jail.
The opposition led by former president Levon Ter-Petrossian has been calling for the Armenian authorities to resign and for new, fair and democratic elections to be held. Although supporters numbering in the thousands show up for rallies held at least twice a month (they weren’t held during the winter for some odd reason) and then march through the city in the evening hours, they are essentially an ineffective minority. Most citizens–at least in my eyes–seem to be generally indifferent or quite supportive of the ruling regime, based on the lower than expected numbers of active citizens calling for change. Or else, people are simply accepting things as they are and going about their business.
An oppositional force is essential in any democracy, but I am skeptical about how much of an impact the Armenian National Congress, as the movement calls itself, will have in the short run or even far off. I can’t say whether they will accomplish anything for bringing about change in the system of governance and open society in Armenia.
Personally, I have a lot of respect for the former foreign minister and his prowess, not to mention his intellectual capacity, but I don’t know if he along with his comrades can ever manage to change anything anytime soon.
As for the effectiveness of the opposition, I always wonder about the effectiveness of a chess player who is in the ring with a boxer (this is how LTP described the political environment once). The only hope the chess player has is to endure long enough for the boxer to get too tired of beating up the chess player.
Is it doable? I hope so. Is it effective? Maybe not as effective as replacing the chess player with another boxer.