Still Trying To Comprehend The Logic

Not to keep repeating myself, but nevertheless…

There’s been mixed opinions being vocalized by political parties about the agreements that are planned to be signed in the next six weeks. It is expected that two separate documents will be signed then passed on to the parliaments of both Turkey and Armenia for ratification. The Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu even suggested in an interview that if all goes well the border could possibly open by the end of the year.

The reaction on the political front to the recent developments has been somewhat surprising. Levon Ter-Petrossian, the leader of Armenian National Congress, has effectively endorsed the agreements calling them a step forward in Turkish-Armenian relations, although back in April he was very critical of the framework—on which these protocols are based—claiming that the Armenian side was about to make concessions on vital Armenian interests. Now he taking the exact opposite stance, claiming that the new round of discussions is necessary for developing lucrative relations between Armenia and Turkey while maintaining peace in the region. His flip-flopping on the issue doesn’t make sense.

The ARF-Dashnaktsutiun has been making a lot of noise by holding rallies in Yerevan and denouncing the protocols. They claim (and I agree) that they are a blow to the Armenian cause. I will take it one step further to state that if the border opens without Turkey’s recognition of the Armenian Genocide along with the stipulation that the borders of the Treaty of Kars be formally accepted by Armenia, the Armenian cause will effectively be dead. Despite the ARF’s strong criticism, its leadership is not advocating that President Sarkisian resign from his post, claiming that it is not logical if it is still possible to persuade the Armenian diplomatic team to walk away from the negotiating table. Yet it seems to me that the president is not about to cancel the talks or agreements to appease Armenian nationalists and public opinion. So I don’t understand why the party doesn’t step up its efforts to thwart the forthcoming signing of the protocols.

Based on the look of things on the ground, Armenians don’t seem that concerned about the border being opened. People I have spoken to are either optimistic about diplomatic relations with Turkey or see it as a detriment to Armenia’s self-reliance and stability (which I also agree with). With the status quo Armenia is arguably more stable than it would be with the protocols in place for certain. If concessions are made all in Azerbaijan’s favor in a foreseen package deal with forging diplomatic relations, Armenia will only lose, it won’t gain anything.

Like I’ve said before—the Armenian economy has been flourishing with a closed border, which for all intents and purposes was already opened long ago since all imported goods from Turkey, cheap and plentiful, are trucked in through Georgia.

It is mind boggling to see the vast amount of cars on the Armenian roads–there are tens (probably hundreds) of thousands of registered vehicles out there. Expensive boutique chain stores keep opening for business. At some cafes you have to pay a 3,000 dram fee to sit on sofas in the “VIP” section. Meanwhile, development projects, some of the new, are continuing despite reports in recent months that the sector has taken a sharp downturn. Plus, the banking sector is stable and solid, according to the Central Bank. If those are not signs of economic progress I don’t know what are. All this while the regions continue to stagnate save for the regional administrative towns and cities. I just can’t imagine things changing much economically speaking with an open border, especially with one-sided trade. Armenians have never had it so good.

And I don’t understand for the life of me why Armenia does not attach the precondition that Turkey accept the Armenian Genocide as a fact of its own history. Turkey must not be permitted to get away with not recognizing the genocide in these negotiations—there is no logic in allowing this to happen. To put things into perspective, how would a person sit at a table with his neighbor to reconcile his differences when it has already been established and accepted by various law authorities that the same neighbor–who continues to deny any wrongdoing on his part and belittles his accuser—savagely butchered his entire family? The Armenian diplomatic team is effectively doing just that—it is willing to put the genocide issue aside to establish relations with its neighbor, the same that has adamantly and mockingly denied its indisputable role in committing mass killings. In the process President Sarkisian shiningly satisfies his own ego while Turkey moves several steps closer to joining the European Union without the need to come to terms with its own history of spreading hate and committing mass-scale murder.

And Armenia gets nothing in return—no claims to historic lands, no reparations, no justice while genocide denial continues unabated. Strange times we are living in.