There is unsubstantiated speculation that President Serge Sarkisian may join political forces with Levon Ter-Petrosian in a political alliance to thwart any chance of Robert Kocharian’s return to power. Although Kocharian has repeatedly denied intentions of returning to political life, there are indicators that suggest otherwise.
On Tuesday at the Armenian National Congress rally in Yerevan, Ter-Petrosian made mention of a “seance” recently being held in Dubai– Kocharian had assembled various oligarchs there to hold a secret meeting. But Ter-Petrossian didn’t elaborate on the details.
However, according to rumor he purportedly told his supporters that it was necessary to get rid of Sarkisian for making perceived foreign policy blunders, and that he needed their backing to overthrow him once the time came. Among them was Hovik “Moog” Abrahamian, the president of the National Assembly and a member of the Republican party of which Sarkisian is of course the leader. Purportedly, Abrahamian, who is rumored to be backing Kocharian, agreed to lend his support so long as he in the mix of things became President of Armenia for at least four days, as the president of the National Assembly is second to the throne until a new president is elected according to the Armenian constitution.
Since these revelations were brought to light several of Abramahian’s relatives working as public servants were dismissed from their positions in various administrative and governmental departments, like the Customs House where one of them had a senior position, according to a source which I can’t reveal.
Kocharian’s press office released a statement in reaction to Ter-Petrosian’s speech on Tuesday which has appeared on various news sites in Armenian. A1 Plus managed to translate it into English. Here’s an excerpt.
Ter-Petrosyan and the Armenian National Movement diverted me a lot. They are involved in a strange activity. They decide that I dream about returning to politics and then start fighting against my return. After a while, they find out that I haven’t returned, are shocked and say their actions stopped me. Each of my trips or speeches becomes an occasion to break into an outrage.
I would advise those men not to be so tense, or else they may acquire an aging hemorrhoid by not being accustomed to the overload.
The last statement alone just shows how precarious Kocharian’s intentions and even emotional stability are. The disastrous events of March 1 are still fresh on people’s minds; no one can dare forget about what happened and how it was covered up. If society ever allows him to take power again, there’s something dreadfully wrong.
But if there is a power struggle, it will most likely mean a war between oligarch clans. Serge has already announced his intentions to run for president in 2012, so he’ll be ready to put up a fight to thwart any attempts at being overthrown. There have already been clashes reported in the news between the Republican party and Prosperous Armenia–which is backed by Kocharian–over who has the most clout on the Yerevan city council. These clashes of course were denied in news reports but nevertheless, the news is out there and there’s no reason to doubt it. Now it’s just a question of where allegiances truly lie.
Another separate rumor claims that if Serge does not cut a deal to appease Turkey and Azerbaijan in a supposed, behind-the-scenes package deal to ratify the protocols and agree to a final Nagorno-Karabakh peace settlement, he will be forced to resign by the foreign powers that be. That would leave room for Kocharian to potentially take power again, or else Ter-Petrossian somehow since there’s no one else powerful enough and supported internationally to take the reins at the moment.
I think it’s safe to say that no one can accurately forecast what’s really going to happen in the near future, but one thing’s for sure–all this speculation is certainly intriguing.
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