Initiatives have been undertaken to bring youth from both sides together, on neutral ground like Georgia, to discuss [...]]]> During a visit last weekend to the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, commonly known as Artsakh to Armenians, some thoughts came to mind about the current state of affairs, the “no war, no peace” situation as it is sometimes referred to.

Initiatives have been undertaken to bring youth from both sides together, on neutral ground like Georgia, to discuss issues related to the conflict in the hopes that some understanding of the “enemy” can be reached. These efforts should be applauded, as non-governmental representatives of the two opposing sides naturally need to talk one another to exchange ideas and try to work out differences in thought and opinion on the public level. But no matter how much discussion takes place, no matter the friendships forged in such workshops between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, both sides are always likely going to walk away saying the same thing: “Karabakh is ours.”

It’s been 18 years since the cease fire, and Azerbaijanis have still to come to grips with the reality that Nagorno-Karabakh will most certainly never be part of the Republic of Azerbaijan. That the people of Artsakh will agree to hold a referendum as part of a peace deal to decide upon their status — when they had already determined it in 1991 by declaring independence — is an absurd expectation. The bonds between Armenia and Artsakh are tightly wound together; there is no separating the two without another senseless, brutal war. And despite Baku’s biweekly threats of renewed hostilities, that’s certainly something no one wants.

In my view, it is not the OSCE’s Minsk Group that will force the two sides to sign a peace agreement. Indeed, if the three group member states really wanted to settle this matter once and for all an agreement would surely have been found in the last 15 years. These meetings being held, the discussions behind closed doors, and the subsequent statements issued are all part of an elaborate charade, a long-running theatrical production that is becoming more tiresome with every season.

Ultimately, it is Russia that is going to decide when the deal has to be made and under what conditions, something that not too many people following the issue want to believe. A recent “extremely frank” meeting held between Russian President Dimitry Medvedev and Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev may lead the two sides closer to agreeing upon the principles of a peace deal, although given Baku’s stubborn, backtracking track record that seems unlikely. We have to keep waiting for an agreement in the meantime.

The Armenians of Artsakh, on the other hand, made their decision in 1991. For them, there’s nothing, not one inch of land, to give. And they’re not even being asked to.

Artur at The Armenian Observer Blog wrote a post yesterday about the OSCE Minsk Group’s reaction to the Nagorno-Karabakh parliamentary elections that were held on Sunday. He comments that:

More than 70 percent of some 95,000 eligible voters turned out to vote in the poll, where 33 parliamentary mandates were contested on [...]]]>

Artur at The Armenian Observer Blog wrote a post yesterday about the OSCE Minsk Group’s reaction to the Nagorno-Karabakh parliamentary elections that were held on Sunday. He comments that:

More than 70 percent of some 95,000 eligible voters turned out to vote in the poll, where 33 parliamentary mandates were contested on split proportional and majority lists. The elections were peaceful, well organized, and quite democratic, even if no party formed any real political opposition to the incumbent president, and prime minister’s party won the majority.

He was justifiably irate that the Minsk Group, which is supposed to be officiating the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, released the following statement:

MOSCOW/PARIS/WASHINGTON, 24 May 2010 – The Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Ambassador Igor Popov of Russia, Bernard Fassier of France, and Robert Bradtke of the United States, released the following statement today:

The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs (Ambassador Bernard Fassier of France; Ambassador Robert Bradtke of the United States; Ambassador Igor Popov of the Russian Federation) took note that so-called parliamentary elections took place in Nagorno-Karabakh on May 23, 2010. Although the Co-Chairs understand the need for the de facto authorities in NK to try to organize democratically the public life of their population with such a procedure, they underscore again that Nagorno-Karabakh is not recognized as an independent and sovereign state by any of their three countries, nor by any other country, including Armenia. The Co-Chairs consider that this procedure should not preempt the determination of the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh in the broader framework of the peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The OSCE Minsk Group has been operating since the mid-1990s, they’ve been there every step of the way since the cease-fire in 1994. The group knows exactly what the people of Nagorno-Karabakh obviously wanted and what they were fighting for–self-governance and self-determination. So how can they say the “so-called parliamentary elections,” also referred to as a “procedure,” “…should not preempt the determination of the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh.” Of course it does. It has been since 1991, when Nagorno-Karabakh declared itself independent. Why would Russia of all countries put its name on this tersely worded statement? Russia started this mess to begin with during Stalin’s reign. Has the OSCE forgotten?

Does Armenia and even Azerbaijan actually trust the Minsk Group and its efforts in helping to establish peace? What has the group actually accomplished in all these years, save for making vague statements about mutually acceptable conditions for peace and undefined security guarantees? It’s very proud of the so-called “Madrid Principles” that you often read about in the news without having a clear understanding of what they actually are, since they are supposedly kept secret (although rumor has it that all territories are expected to be returned to Azerbaijani control, with Karabakh given some kind of neutral interim status until the “final status” is determined in some sort of “referendum”).  But who is really taking the group seriously anymore?

Why does this process continue if there doesn’t seem to be any trust? With this statement, the Minsk Group is not showing any support or respect whatsoever for what the people of Nagorno-Karabakh want and died for. Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence is not recognized by any of the three Minsk Group member states, that’s certainly true. Yet its resolve must be recognized. The Karabakh people clearly know what they want. Problem is, the Minsk Group after all these years still undermines that. That’s precisely why a solution hasn’t been reached until now.

Photo credit: Photolur

Both leaders have been tight-lipped about their meeting and their own separate sit-downs with President Obama, and there really isn’t a lot of [...]]]> Seems there’s nothing positive that can be said about the Sarkisian-Erdogan meeting in Washington, DC that took place on April 12 on the sidelines of the nuclear security summit hosted by President Obama.

Both leaders have been tight-lipped about their meeting and their own separate sit-downs with President Obama, and there really isn’t a lot of information available regarding what was said. RFE/RL however wrote this:

According to the Turkish daily “Sabah,” Erdogan told Sarkisian that the existing “political atmosphere” does not bode well for their ratification by Turkey’s Grand National Assembly. He blamed it on recent decisions by U.S. and Swedish lawmakers to recognize the 1915 massacres of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as genocide.

“If the protocols are brought to the agenda of the parliament while U.S. and Swedish parliaments are taking decisions on the issue, they will be rejected,” he reportedly said. “Sabah” also quoted Erdogan as also linking protocol ratification with decisive progress in international efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict.

I think it became clear last autumn when Turkish leaders started insisting that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict be settled first before the protocols be ratified that Ankara was backtracking from its commitments for establishing formal diplomatic relations. Perhaps they thought that Yerevan was so desperate it would cut a quick and dirty deal with Azerbaijan just to get the Turkish-Armenian border opened, or else they wanted to show just who’s the boss to foreign powers with interests in the region. Lately, the Turks have been indicating that they want direct involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and have some role in the Minsk Group. But I don’t understand why Turkey would think that Armenia would unquestionably go along with its preconditions.

Meanwhile, Yerevan is playing hardball, insisting that there is no way worldwide Armenian Genocide recognition efforts can be suppressed. The Armenian leadership is still adamant that no preconditions can be attached to ratifying the protocols, namely regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution. It’s also absurd that Turkey actually thinks Armenia would sever ties with the Armenian Diaspora, its main support base, just because it wants that to happen. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton assured Sarkisian in their meeting on April 13 that the US was still pressing for normalization of relations without preconditions.

Quite honestly, I believe this whole charade between Turkey and Armenia that’s been playing out for well over a year now has been a grand chess match. And eventually, it was going to end in a stalemate. I don’t think Sarkisian really had any intentions to open the border at all costs and by whatever means necessary, as he led many to believe last year. He was simply trying to prove to the world that he was indeed a legitimately elected, relevant president and was willing to appease his neighbors, but not to the point of selling out his nation’s geopolitical and strategic interests. Many in the diaspora and Armenia who were taken aback by the protocols last August, myself included, started to panic. Maybe that’s what Sarkisian wanted–the protests in the diaspora served an effective way to ruffle Turkey’s feathers and see how it would react. And as we remember, it went on the offensive.

Now it’s a question of who is going to look more noble in the eyes of the world when this impasse is declared deadlocked–Erdogan or Sarkisian. President Obama’s address to Armenian-Americans on April 24 will be telling.

On Tuesday at the Armenian National Congress rally in Yerevan, [...]]]> There is unsubstantiated speculation that President Serge Sarkisian may join political forces with Levon Ter-Petrosian in a political alliance to thwart any chance of Robert Kocharian’s return to power. Although Kocharian has repeatedly denied intentions of returning to political life, there are indicators that suggest otherwise.

On Tuesday at the Armenian National Congress rally in Yerevan, Ter-Petrosian made mention of a “seance” recently being held in Dubai– Kocharian had assembled various oligarchs there to hold a secret meeting. But Ter-Petrossian didn’t elaborate on the details.

However, according to rumor he purportedly told his supporters that it was necessary to get rid of Sarkisian for making perceived foreign policy blunders, and that he needed their backing to overthrow him once the time came. Among them was Hovik “Moog” Abrahamian, the president of the National Assembly and a member of the Republican party of which Sarkisian is of course the leader.  Purportedly, Abrahamian, who is rumored to be backing Kocharian, agreed to lend his support so long as he in the mix of things became President of Armenia for at least four days, as the president of the National Assembly is second to the throne until a new president is elected according to the Armenian constitution.

Since these revelations were brought to light several of Abramahian’s relatives working as public servants were dismissed from their positions in various administrative and governmental departments, like the Customs House where one of them had a senior position, according to a source which I can’t reveal.

Kocharian’s press office released a statement in reaction to Ter-Petrosian’s speech on Tuesday which has appeared on various news sites in Armenian. A1 Plus managed to translate it into English. Here’s an excerpt.

Ter-Petrosyan and the Armenian National Movement diverted me a lot. They are involved in a strange activity. They decide that I dream about returning to politics and then start fighting against my return. After a while, they find out that I haven’t returned, are shocked and say their actions stopped me. Each of my trips or speeches becomes an occasion to break into an outrage.

I would advise those men not to be so tense, or else they may acquire an aging hemorrhoid by not being accustomed to the overload.

The last statement alone just shows how precarious Kocharian’s intentions and even emotional stability are. The disastrous events of March 1 are still fresh on people’s minds; no one can dare forget about what happened and how it was covered up. If society ever allows him to take power again, there’s something dreadfully wrong.

But if there is a power struggle, it will most likely mean a war between oligarch clans. Serge has already announced his intentions to run for president in 2012, so he’ll be ready to put up a fight to thwart any attempts at being overthrown. There have already been clashes reported in the news between the Republican party and Prosperous Armenia–which is backed by Kocharian–over who has the most clout on the Yerevan city council. These clashes of course were denied in news reports but nevertheless, the news is out there and there’s no reason to doubt it. Now it’s just a question of where allegiances truly lie.

Another separate rumor claims that if Serge does not cut a deal to appease Turkey and Azerbaijan in a supposed, behind-the-scenes package deal to ratify the protocols and agree to a final Nagorno-Karabakh peace settlement, he will be forced to resign by the foreign powers that be. That would leave room for Kocharian to potentially take power again, or else Ter-Petrossian somehow since there’s no one else powerful enough and supported internationally to take the reins at the moment.

I think it’s safe to say that no one can accurately forecast what’s really going to happen in the near future, but one thing’s for sure–all this speculation is certainly intriguing.

The likelihood of another Armenian-Azerbaijani war for Nagorno-Karabakh has increased as a result of the U.S.-backed rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey, according [...]]]> I just read the following report on RFE/RL about the escalation of chances for war breaking out again between Azerbaijan and Armenia/Nagorno-Karabagh over control of the self-declared republic. Here’s a segment of the article:

The likelihood of another Armenian-Azerbaijani war for Nagorno-Karabakh has increased as a result of the U.S.-backed rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey, according to America’s top intelligence official.

“Although there has been progress in the past year toward Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, this has affected the delicate relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and increases the risk of a renewed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh,” Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair warned late Tuesday in written testimony to a U.S. Senate committee.

Blair also warned of broader security and stability threats persisting in the South Caucasus. “The unresolved conflicts of the Caucasus provide the most likely flashpoints in the Eurasia region,” he said. “Moscow’s expanded military presence in and political-economic ties to Georgia’s separatist regions of South Ossetia and sporadic low-level violence increase the risk of miscalculation or overreaction leading to renewed fighting.”

The United States has strongly supported and at times mediated in the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement that began nearly two years ago and led to the signing last October of two “protocols” envisaging the normalization of relations between the two historical foes.

I don’t know if this is something to worry about. Sure, Ilham Aliyev likes to spew war rhetoric ever now and then, threatening to pummel Armenian forces and take back control over Nagorno-Karabakh, but no one ever took it seriously–at least not Moscow, Paris or Washington. But Dennis Blair begs to differ. He must know information that no one else does–perhaps not even Yerevan–even something that hasn’t been revealed in his written testimony.

Is this for real?

Hetq Online reports the following:

An article in Today’s Zaman, entitled “Normalization with Armenia at risk, says PM Erdogan”, states that during yesterday’s phone call between foreign ministers of the two nations, the [...]]]> Seems that Ankara is not happy with last week’s Armenian Constitutional Court decision regarding the protocols, and they’re letting the whole world know it.

Hetq Online reports the following:

An article in Today’s Zaman, entitled “Normalization with Armenia at risk, says PM Erdogan”, states that during yesterday’s phone call between foreign ministers of the two nations, the Turkish Foreign Mnister Davutoglu told his Armenian counterpart that right after the documents were signed, a public awareness campaign was launched in Turkey and the Protocols were sent to Parliament, whereas Armenia has not yet done so.

According to the Turkish Foreign Ministry’s statement on Jan. 18, the Armenian constitutional court’s “grounds for decision” over the conformity of the protocols to their constitution “contain preconditions and restrictive provisions which impair the letter and spirit of the protocols” and “undermine the very reason for negotiating these protocols as well as their fundamental objective.”

Burak Özügergin, the Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told Today’s Zaman that Armenia has taken the heart out of the protocols and created a new, restrictive situation. He further explained that on the one hand, the court had ruled to approve the protocols, which call for the establishment of a joint commission of historians to better understand past events, but on the other it refers to the Declaration of Independence of Armenia.

Paragraph 11 of the Declaration of Independence states, “The Republic of Armenia stands in support of the task of achieving international recognition of the 1915 Genocide in Ottoman Turkey and Western Armenia.”

“Then why establish a commission of historians?” Özügergin said.

In the fifth paragraph of the Armenian court’s ruling it says that the protocols “cannot be interpreted or applied” in a way that would contradict the provisions of the preamble to Armenia’s constitution and the requirements of paragraph 11 of its Declaration of Independence.

Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Özügergin pointed out another issue of concern for the Turkish side — the main limitations the Armenian court has placed on the protocols in that the court made all clauses of the protocols conditional on the implementation of two main obligations: “establish diplomatic relations” and “open the common border.”

On Wednesday, Hurriyet quoted Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as saying, “We took it directly to our Parliament, without making changes. We didn’t employ a mediator on the text. We didn’t carry out any read-between-the-lines operations. This is a proof of our sincerity. Armenia has tried to change the text.”

Now it is Turkey who is playing the blame game about preconditions attached to the protocols. Wasn’t it Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu who repeatedly stated to the Turkish and international pressafter the protocols had been signed that the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia cannot be established without a Nagorno-Karakagh peace deal in Azerbaijan’s favor? They have been saying this repeatedly and unabashedly for months now. There is not one provision in the protocols that alludes to a peaceful settlement to the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict in exchange for an opened border. Last week when Erdogan visited Moscow Prime Minister Vladimir Putin stated essentially that Turkey had to back off and not confuse the two issues, and Washington has alluded to the same, although in more vague language.

I think, given the rhetoric that Turkish diplomats have been reiterating, the Constitutional Court’s ruling is certainly helpful to the Armenian side, because it clearly shows that Yerevan can also play hardball. Naturally, Ankara is demonstrating that it isn’t happy, just as it has all along, which is good. I’m looking forward to a derailing of the protocols quite honestly. I thought it was foolish for Yerevan to sign them in the first place, and given the recent bickering, both sides are probably regretting having been pressured to get on with the diplomatic fence-mending process.

I really don’t think that the Turks and Armenians are anywhere close to resolving their differences in the spirit of peace and mutual understanding, which is evidently absent.

Here are excerpts from the article:

Azerbaijan insists on the restoration of its control [...]]]> Yesterday RFE/RL reported that the foreign minister of Azerbaijan, Elmar Mammadyarov, made a public statement in which he underlined Baku’s stance on the future of Nagorno-Karabagh. Azerbaijan demands that the self-declared republic be returned to their control, 15 years after the cease fire.

Here are excerpts from the article:

Azerbaijan insists on the restoration of its control over Nagorno-Karabakh despite accepting peoples’ right to self-determination as one of the core principles for resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute, Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov indicated on Wednesday.
“Providing self-governance for Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan will be a just and durable solution, and it can dramatically reduce tensions and challenges for peace and stability in the region,” Mammadyarov said in a speech at a ministerial conference in Athens of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

Um, that would essentially revive the autonomous status that the region had during Soviet times, the same status that was imposed on it in the 1920s. In other words, in such an agreement Armenia would essentially be reneging on the victories of the people of Nagorno-Karabagh and their struggles to earn self-determination/independence. Everything would revert to the way things were. It would be as if the war was fought for nothing.

The article goes on to explain that:

Speaking at the OSCE forum later in the day, Nalbandian accused Mammadyarov of seeking to “distort” the essence of the Karabakh dispute and international efforts to resolve it. That, he said, is hampering further progress in the peace process.

Still, both ministers noted that the parties have moved closer to hammering out a compromise peace accord. “I should admit that there are positive dynamics in the latest talks and both sides together with the Minsk Group Co-chairs agreed to intensify negotiations,” said Mammadyarov.

The OSCE Minsk Group released the following statement on December 1:

“The Heads of Delegation of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries, Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister of France Bernard Kouchner, and Deputy Secretary of State of the United States James Steinberg met in Athens on December 1 with the Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Elmar Mammadyarov and Foreign Minister of Armenia Edward Nalbandian.

The five Heads of Delegation recalled the commitments in the November 2008 Moscow Declaration and the December 2008 Helsinki OSCE Ministerial Statement. They noted the positive dynamic in the talks, demonstrated through six meetings this year between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. They agreed that the increasing frequency of these meetings has significantly contributed to an enhanced dialogue between the parties and forward movement toward finalizing the Basic Principles for the Peaceful Settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, proposed in Madrid on November 29, 2007.

Foreign Ministers Lavrov and Kouchner and Deputy Secretary Steinberg reiterated the commitment of their countries, as expressed in the Joint Statement on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict at the L’Aquila Summit of the Eight on July 10, issued by their three Presidents, to support the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan as they complete work on the Basic Principles and urged that the parties complete this work as soon as possible. They stressed that agreement on the Basic Principles would provide the framework for a comprehensive settlement to promote a future of peace, stability, and prosperity for the entire region.

The Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan reported on progress during the course of this year in achieving common understandings on points of the Basic Principles. They stated the willingness of their countries to complete work on the Basic Principles, as stipulated by the Presidents of the Co-Chair countries at L’Aquila. The Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to work intensively to resolve the remaining issues, to reach an agreement based, in particular, upon the principles of the Helsinki Final Act of Non-Use of Force or Threat of Force, Territorial Integrity, and the Equal Rights and Self-Determination of Peoples.”

I would like to know what the hell Prime Minister Nalbandian has been doing during these recent talks. How could he possibly admit that “progress” has been made in reaching a peace deal? The negotiations are moving backward, not forward. The proposals being laid on the table are unacceptable, even absurd for the Armenian side to accept. Why is Nalbandian continuing to entertain his Azerbaijani counterpart and the Minsk Group and any longer, what is the point in all of this? Why is President Sarkisian–who is a native of Nagorno-Karabagh–swallowing these proposals as being acceptable? From what has been revealed by the press, there are only a few minor things that need to be ironed out for the Madrid Principles to become a reality. I would love to know what they are.

There is no point for the Armenian side to continue the negotiations. The Minsk Group has always shamelessly ignored the leadership of Nagorno-Karabagh as being a legitimate party to the peace process. By agreeing to continue negotiations despite these comments by Mammadyarov and President Aliyev’s repeated bellicose statements that Nagorno-Karabagh would be won by force if necessary (most recently reiterated after his pointless meeting with President Sarkisian on November 23 in Munich), Armenia is digging a deeper hole for itself that it will have difficulty surviving in.

In the meantinme, Turkey is breathing down Armenia’s neck by insisting that an opened border would be contingent upon a swift resolution to the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict. Armenia was hoping that trade would begin directly across the border by next spring, which obviously means something needs to be signed fast.

Why is Armenia playing these games? Is Yerevan indeed ready to go through with this or is it simply expressing a willingness to cooperate, while playing the waiting game for Baku to back out of the negotiations as it has time and time again in the past? Does Yerevan really believe that Baku would not dare to resume the war? What’s to stop it from doing so?

These are dangerous times for Armenia. Why don’t people wake up?

Armenian president Serge Sarkisian is set to meet his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev for the sixth time this year in Munich this weekend.

Their last meeting a month ago in Moldova was considered a failure by Aliyev, and the Azeri side claimed that the Armenians were toughening their stance in [...]]]>

Presidents Serge Sarkisian and Ilham Aliyev

Armenian president Serge Sarkisian is set to meet his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev for the sixth time this year in Munich this weekend.

Their last meeting a month ago in Moldova was considered a failure by Aliyev, and the Azeri side claimed that the Armenians were toughening their stance in finding a final resolution to the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict. Despite what may have been written in the press and vocalized by OSCE co-chairs in press conferences, little to no real progress has been made at all in the talks.

So why are they meeting again before the end of the year? The Azeri foreign minister issues statements that are never encouraging about Armenia stalling, while Aliyev still has the audacity to announce that Karabagh will be won back by force sooner or later, even under criticism from the OSCE co-chairs for doing so.

Recently information was revealed by the press suggesting that with this current peace proposal on the table, Nagorno-Karabagh would essentially return to the same status it had during the days of the Soviet Union. I find it hard to believe that the Armenian side has the intention to sign such a document after a few sticky points are resolved.

I don’t know anyone who takes these negotiations seriously. These meetings don’t seem to spark any interest amongst the general public. Former president Levon Ter-Petrossian did address the issue during is tirades in front of the “Matenadaran” national archive building, but now that he is making nice-nice with the authorities by throwing his support for the Turkish-Armenian protocols, he’s not about to hold any more rallies. Thus public discussion about the peace process seems to be hovering like a helium-filled balloon.

So what is there to talk about? What’s the point of this meeting? Does anyone really think that there will be a breakthrough this weekend?